MSW ratings now way off?

[Barneyrubble]

I think there is SOME accuracy in them - after a while you get to know how your own spot COULD be based on what is on the MSW forecast. But have to say, I use other info as a guide now but do refer to MSW forecasting for somethings....or as a confirmation.

Having no stars certainly does not mean no surf in my book....but depends if you are happy surfing small longboard waves.

[J L]

MSW way off down here too of late, It's easy to look at the cams etc and just go but when you have to plan your weekends etc knowing roughly when the swell is going to hit is well handy, and looking at other data is just as hit and miss.

Last saturday aprently is was lovely, 2ft super clean but MSW was giving 1ft @8secs = Flat aparently it was v small down the coast too as I understand it. sunday it was supposed to be 3ft @11 secs, that would normally give some very surfable waves but it was knee high and gutless............................I still went in and had some fun though

[Cheese Monkey]

I had to laugh at the forecast this week, 3ft with offshores. What materialised was a 6" super clean wave, good for absolutely nothing

So many times been to my local with a good forecast with good intentions and its been flat. Expect it anyway, everyone gets to know what conditions work at their break, but when the forecast is saying 2 stars theres gotta be something wrong

I dont think the new forecaster takes into account how much swell has to wrap around for some places?

[surfnoob]

I notice that the forecast for Newgale on the Welsh west coast always forecasts super swell when its northerly, but the reality is normally 1 foot at best - great for midgets, but not many others.

[stoatface]

Does anyone remember Big G's surf forecast (or any of the other telephone based), this was more or less the pre-internet surf forecast??

That takes me back! haha... the guy used to go through each break so fast! Sennen/Gwenver was right at the end too, so you had to wait a good few minutes, when he go around to it, it he spoke too fast.... haha

Classic....

I never trust MSW charts, they are sometimes a good indicator if you know the breaks well enough... otherwise get your lazy arse into the car like the old days.. if not, web cam's can't lie

[ATTMFKH]

[Stance_On]

Way back, before big Gs, I seem to remember "Sumpters Surf Call". Dont know if its still going but remember calling it all the time from the school pay phone. It was one of those pay phones you only had to put 10p in when you wanted to speak, so you could listen to the surf forecast (and any other toll numbers that might take your interest) for free. I remember initially it used to get right on with it, then they put this bit in front that was the slowest talking ever... "Hi....... Welcome... to... surf... call... with... surf... and beach... check... for beaches... in the south... west... followed by headline... surfing... conditions... around the country..."
Then it'd switch tactic and go for a fast ramble about clouds in the sky and fish in the sea, in an attempt to drop in the actual height in such a manner that you missed it and had to call again. Still, that didnt matter from school, we just used to call it again and again.

[Stance_On]

Re this actual topic: I don't think the "At a glance" forecast is as useful for round here (Porthtowan, Cornwall) as it used to be. The last few years I've been able to watch the surf from my living room so I had a pretty good comparison between forecast and reality. I still think the "accuracy" is there and I like the new depth of data, it's just the presentation seems to be a little less intuitive. In a way I'm glad, certainly seem to get more under-the-radar sessions again these days!!! Still the forecast I use most frequently.

[Black]

I used to call the freefone "is this guy stupid" number and always it said 'stance on' is thick but I don't know why as it only cost 5 quid?!?!?

[jimmynitcher]

I don't understand the percentage probability thing, surely if it's 8% likely to do one thing it is 92% likelier to be something else? And if the probability just gets higher to the day then why isn't it still at all accurate, its got 5 stars today and its flat! (Porthtowan).
I guess it's just an inexact science and always will be, but the more bells and whistles they add the worse it seems to get.

[sidneysnake]

Thought the star rating was only to predict how crowded it's going to be

[jiggie]

Sooo true the stars are just to show how busy it will be .. Bantham five stars ... PACKED !! ..

As for the forecast .. you need to know a little about the place you are going to surf to know what makes it work !!