MSW is so far wrong it must go!

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MSW is so far wrong it must go!

Postby henno » Mon Apr 25, 2011 7:44 am

My little neck of the woods in Queensland Australia is hard to predict. We are sheltered by a little bit of stuff called the Great Barrier Reef. Today, like so many other days on MSW it is supposed to be 4.5 foot increasing to 5 foot tomorrow. We have a new webcam in our area (unfortunately) but it does make it easy to justify my post.

Have a look at this http://www.gpcl.com.au/webcams.html Go to the Agnes Water cam. We have, as is so often the case, lake conditions here. But I'm told by MSW that it's 100% of a 5 foot increase tomorrow.

Come on guys! Give up and stop embarrassing yourselves, at least in my area anyway. Take it down and do some more homework.

Cheers
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Re: MSW is so far wrong it must go!

Postby roberdy » Mon Apr 25, 2011 8:05 am

Dude,
do you think the prediction can take account of every single local condition for the entire planet? Do you want MSW to send a team of scientists out to your "little neck of the woods" to collect data to correct the forecasts for you? Or maybe you can contribute by using the "Upload an eyeball report" button to make your own forecasts better instead of complaining that MSW doesn't tell you when to wax and when to surf exactly right all the time!
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Re: MSW is so far wrong it must go!

Postby henno » Mon Apr 25, 2011 9:10 am

roberdy wrote:Dude,
do you think the prediction can take account of every single local condition for the entire planet?


No, but when they get one particular area so regularly wrong in their predictions that pulling that area from their forecasts isn't too much to ask, or should MSW be considered as infallible as the catholic church or god forbid the american government?

roberdy wrote:Dude,
Do you want MSW to send a team of scientists out to your "little neck of the woods" to collect data to correct the forecasts for you?


Again no, but if they could predict the surf in my area without the town falling about laughing it may add to the credibility of the site.

roberdy wrote:Or maybe you can contribute by using the "Upload an eyeball report" button to make your own forecasts better instead of complaining that MSW doesn't tell you when to wax and when to surf exactly right all the time!


Come on! I need a website that tells me the facts not one I need to correct. The main point here is that when you start a site that predicts the weather/surf/race results/romantic outcomes and you stuff it up on a regular basis you DESERVE to be outted for your incompetence. It's the Australian way mate.
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Re: MSW is so far wrong it must go!

Postby roberdy » Mon Apr 25, 2011 11:54 am

here's some good articles which will help to explain the forecasts mate;

http://magicseaweed.com/Surf-Forecast-Accuracy-Content/1165/

http://magicseaweed.com/Ten-Day-Forecasts-and-Forecast-Probability-Content/2542/

And quite an old one but with some relevant points

http://magicseaweed.com/Whats-New:-How-Your-Forecast-Is-Changing-Content/1168/

I maybe didn't mean to come across totally harsh earlier, just too many people want their hands held these days and get all twisted up if something isn't exactly right straight off the bat. Surf forecasts can't beat local knowledge and I bet that a great many people in your town would be able to look at forecasts off of MSW, account for local conditions such as the effect of the barrier reef and instinctivley know when to go and when to fire up the XBOX instead.

Henno wrote:Come on! I need a website that tells me the facts not one I need to correct. The main point here is that when you start a site that predicts the weather/surf/race results/romantic outcomes and you stuff it up on a regular basis you DESERVE to be outted for your incompetence. It's the Australian way mate.


About this, the forecasts are built using data from bouys and the MSW office is in the UK, if corrections to the models are not indicated by some trigger, be it a eyeball report or note to the MSW office then the models won't get corrected will they?? And I disagree about the Australian way being one of arrogantly calling out something as broken without thinking about it first and maybe giving some input to get it fixed; I have a bunch of Aussie mates and they don't behave like that.

If you have a real issue with the forecast being inaccurate your best approach is to drop a line to the MSW office and ask them to take a look at it, they may ask you for some information to help improve the model or they might not.

You can email General@magicseaweed.com

Hope that helps and you get the understanding or the changes you feel are required.
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Re: MSW is so far wrong it must go!

Postby henryg » Mon Apr 25, 2011 12:05 pm

Mate lots of us surf spots that are sheltered and don't pick up anywhere near the swell that the forecast model predicts. You need to use your own initiative and work out what combination of conditions do work at your spot and hey presto you've got yourself a useable forecast. That means you may need to get down the beach and check the conditions for yourself like people used to do before the internet was around. Why do people need spoon feeding so much these days? :roll:
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Re: MSW is so far wrong it must go!

Postby Chris F » Mon Apr 25, 2011 12:48 pm

Some bloke living in the boondocks doesn't like the forecast. I bet Ben must be crying into his pint. Either use the forecast or don't use it. And aussies reckon poms are the whingers.
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Re: MSW is so far wrong it must go!

Postby kookie-monster » Wed Apr 27, 2011 3:18 pm

Chris F wrote:
And aussies reckon poms are the whingers.


:lol:
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