22 sec period swell

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22 sec period swell

Postby Mat 'Sonic' Clark » Wed Jan 24, 2007 9:29 am

The magicseaweed spectral forecast taken at the 62029 buoy is showing a 1ft 22 sec swell on monday. Thats the longest period swell I can remember seeing for us here in the southwest from a swell source in the north atlantic.

At 1ft it won't show but it'll soon becomes 6ft at 19sec then on to 15ft at 18 sec. That should be interesting. With light W to N winds currently forecast and a WSW swell direction a whole host of breaks on both north (a bit mushy) and south coasts (cleaner than the north) could start firing(or closing out heavily as long period swell does not seem to suit some breaks).

It seems ages since I last felt excited about a swell but this one is looking quite promising at the moment and very diiferent from the months of stormy shit we have been putting up with.
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Postby lostboy » Wed Jan 24, 2007 11:43 am

22 seconds, blimey that's long period groundswell. Where's it come from, the Falklands?!!
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Postby danny1 » Wed Jan 24, 2007 12:03 pm

I would've thought 1ft at 22secs would be 2-3ft at the right reef?
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Postby danny1 » Wed Jan 24, 2007 12:04 pm

but ewhat do i know...the longest period ove seen in the north sea is 14 i think..maybe 16.
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Postby Mat 'Sonic' Clark » Wed Jan 24, 2007 5:06 pm

The low the swell is coming from should form off the U.S north east coast. It looks like it might be a case of bomb cyclogenesis.
(see http://www.islandnet.com/~see/weather/storm/wxbombs.htm)

Its not looking like it'll get so deep today as it did yesterday. Yesterday it was down to ~945mb. Today it's more like ~965. It's still predicted to be a very big and angry system though and as Ben said winds on the 06z run of the GFS (and now the 12Z run as well are looking better)
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Postby Mat 'Sonic' Clark » Wed Jan 24, 2007 5:52 pm

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Postby Ferral » Thu Jan 25, 2007 1:11 pm

looking oh so pretty . . . with a swell of that period surely the local winds wont matter even if it is light west cos it wont affect the swell too mcuh and/or it be bending into some other offshore corners?
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Postby stephh » Thu Jan 25, 2007 2:17 pm

get on - when when will it arrive :shock: I've been following the ECMWF charts as well and hoping the swell might sneak under that bloomin high pressure :-)
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Postby Mat 'Sonic' Clark » Thu Jan 25, 2007 2:33 pm

All models are currently showing Tuesday with light winds so as you say even if they are onshore it should only have a minor effect. I'm more worried about Wednesday and Thursday.

It looks like the swell will peak overnight Tue/Wed. I'm thinking there will be a good wave on the south coast Wed morning but it will start to drop off quite quickly as the swell size/period/direction change. The north coast should continue to pick up a fair bit of swell but many of the models are currently showing low pressure dropping down on us from the north bringing a stiff NW breeze. The GFS shows the high trying to push back in by the end of the week but the ECMWF keeps the W to NW winds going.

It's still all very boarderline. Could be a great week next week or we might be restricted to the south coast while the swells big enough for it to work.
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Postby stephh » Thu Jan 25, 2007 2:42 pm

Yep thought it might be tue/wed but hate nw winds they are a pain. could be a trip south or if swell gets in ok to Saunton for a bit of n or nw shelter. got everything crossed now :-)
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Postby Mat 'Sonic' Clark » Sat Jan 27, 2007 1:12 pm

Looking pretty damn good at the moment.

The lows arrived and looks suitably nasty on quikscat:
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/quikscat/

The swell looks to keep coming strong even with the long journey its got to make.

Winds look to be light most of the time apart from perhaps Wednesday afternoon. Anouther pulse of swell for Friday and all but one GFS ensemble has offshore winds for the North coast on Friday too.

Hope your all feeling fit out there for possibly 6 days on the trot of soild surf.
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Postby Ferral » Sat Jan 27, 2007 1:18 pm

Excellent!!! . . . working my arse off this weekend ready for a suitably slack week!
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