Improving forecasts

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Improving forecasts

Postby icable » Tue Feb 25, 2014 12:18 pm

Is there anywhere on the site that we can log what the actual wave heights at different locations are and when they are? I am working on something for wave height prediction at work and I know that the modelling, if improved could benefit us surfers and also possibly the public for looking at the risk of flooding from large waves.We could even record data for breaks that are not currently on the site so we could spread people out among all the breaks as they chose based on how crowded they think it's going to be from their own experience as well as the prediction of wave quality.

We have a massive resource in the numbers of people that look at this site in the UK and if we work together we could help ourselves and others at the same time?

I know we are not all completely accurate at how we remember waves after we've been in but with time the data would become really useful in spite of this.

Would there be anyone interested in helping us surfers and others?
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Re: Improving forecasts

Postby ATTMFKH » Sun Mar 02, 2014 5:19 pm

icable wrote:.We could even record data for breaks that are not currently on the site


:knob:
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Re: Improving forecasts

Postby icable » Thu Mar 06, 2014 10:39 am

Thanks for posting:

I think I understand why you think I'm a knob:

posting wave heights for breaks not on the site would crowd out your favorite spots? (maybe we could come up with a way of maintaining surf spot anonymity? does anyone have any thoughts?)

or because they are not mentioned on the site and so would have not way of recording anything?

I think it's the former but if you could let me know it would be quite useful, improving the nature of the information available even on the known breaks would be of massive use.
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Re: Improving forecasts

Postby Tomdiddlybomb » Fri Mar 07, 2014 3:11 pm

it's because us surfers are a selfish bunch and hate sharing our precious waves with anyone but the closest of companions, to share any information about a secret spot is to risk exposing it to hoards of foamie surfing kooks from london...
we all know what the forecast swell will do when it reaches certain spots anyway so it's totally unnecessary
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Re: Improving forecasts

Postby bradfordewit » Thu Mar 20, 2014 12:12 pm

I agree..It should be totally confidential..:P :P
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Re: Improving forecasts

Postby Leven » Thu May 08, 2014 8:13 pm

icable wrote:
I think it's the former but if you could let me know it would be quite useful, improving the nature of the information available even on the known breaks would be of massive use.


Why? Learn to read a chart properly, not rely on MSW star system, then it doesn't matter at all.
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Re: Improving forecasts

Postby defever » Tue May 20, 2014 3:20 pm

I find this interesting, so I'm going to write an essay on my initial thoughts!

1. Are you looking for "forecast" (i.e. prediction), "live" (i.e. present condition), or "retrospective" (i.e. historical) data feed?

2. There's something similar to your idea for wind data: Weather Display Live. There are loads of these set up all along the coast of UK (often sponsored/rigged by sailing clubs on the shoreline or small airport by the coast).
There are advantages and disadvantages for this: mainly the "good" being a live feed (second by second data) and "bad" being unreliable technology (often breaks down during storm, gets false reading on a wind shadow where wind gets gusty/killed due to surrounding landmark, and different readings at different height, for example, at gound level, '2m' human face level, '25m' kite level). So if you are sailor, windsurfer, or a kiter looking for wind to play, you still (majority of the time...) drive down to the coast for accurate judgement of the wind… I can imagine similar obstacles with your "wave reading" idea.

3. Good idea in terms of making the most of our modern technology; but as Leven says, WHY would you want to do that? Yes, you have a good point on public safety, but don’t we have RLNI qualified professionals (much more knowledgeable than an “remote” technology) on popular beaches? And those who decide to go to an unpatrolled beach, well, you can’t be certain that introducing such technology will stop/save them from going to an “unsafe” beach…

4. I think we have enough information to digest when/where is good for surfing, beach combing, family outing, children, etc. Heck, we have live webcams these days! In terms of beach safety, I believe that "public education" on beach & surf safety at grassroot level would be more economically and suitainably viable (very debatable, I agree).

Having mentioned all these, I still think it’s an interesting idea. But the rationale needs to be more precise and focused, I think. You can’t set up such technology and a massive database for not really knowing what and why the data is collected.

Just a thought!
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Re: Improving forecasts

Postby defever » Tue May 20, 2014 3:32 pm

oops, just seen the date of the first post... meh.
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