SJ's Surf Forecast for the SW - 13-19 June 2016

For discussion of surf forecasting science and technology, wave science, weather and board mechanics or for any questions about the magicseaweed.com forecasts and software.

SJ's Surf Forecast for the SW - 13-19 June 2016

Postby Shiraz Jiwa » Wed Jun 15, 2016 9:29 am

SJ’s Surf Forecast for the SW

Forecast last updated at 10:20 Wednesday 15th June 2016
Hi everyone – these updates are currently made at any time of the day as and when I get the time/chance to update – however from September the intention would be for it to be updated every weekday morning by 10am.

[Don’t forget to look at this forecast the day before you go beach for the latest, as things can often change!]

The Rest Of The Week:
‘Meh! The sun and good surf has gone away, and it’s time now for a wet and windy day/week. Plenty of swell for most of the week, but with mostly onshore conditions for the North, and too small for the south to really work.’
Sunrise and sunset – 05:10 and 21:30
Twilight starts and ends – 04:25 and 22:15
Midday – 13:20
Length of day – 16:20
Offshore Sea Temp approx – 14.5C / 58F
outputmodelrun-150616-1010
Image

Monday 13th:
‘Could be OK if you get on it early! The winds will soon increase in strength and swing onshore though.’
Swell – (i) OK W-WSW going Weak W
Wind – Light-Medium SW going Medium W
Weather – Cloudy/overcast but mostly dry
North Coast – 4-5ft (Chest-Shoulderhigh) going 5-6ft (Shoulder-Headhigh)
South Coast – 1-2ft (Kneehigh)
Tides – 06:32 Low, 12:31 High, 18:57 Low (Neap tides)

Tuesday 14th:
‘Winds are too strong and onshore today – creating messy onshore lumpy surf with no underlying quality to the swell anyway.’
Swell – (i) Weak W
Wind – Medium W
Weather – Overcast with light rain showers
North Coast – 6ft (Headhigh) going 4-5ft (Chest-Shoulderhigh)
South Coast – 1-3ft (Knee-Waisthigh) going 1-2ft (Kneehigh)
Tides – 07:40 Low, 13:38 High, 20:04 Low

Wednesday 15th:
‘Onshore to the North, but a longer period swell will push through, making for an onshore for ‘chunky’ wave later on.’
Swell – (i) OK going Strong W
Wind – Light-Medium W going NW
Weather – Overcast with heavy rain showers
North Coast – 4-5ft (Chest-Shoulderhigh)
South Coast – 1-2ft (Kneehigh)
Tides – 08:42 Low, 14:40 High, 21:05 Low

Thursday 16th:
‘Onshore for the North, however the south may have a small but clean wave in the morning if you know where to look there!’
Swell – (i) OK W
Wind – Light-Medium going Medium N-NW
Weather – Mixture of cloud, sunshine,and rain
North Coast – 4-6ft (Chest-Headhigh) going 3-4ft (Waist-Chesthigh)
South Coast – 1-3ft (Knee-Waisthigh) going 1ft (Flat)
Tides – 09:35 Low, 15:31 High, 21:55 Low

Friday 17th:
‘A return to smallness – onshore slop on the North, and the south will be almost flat.’
Swell – (i) OK going Weak W-WNW
Wind – Medium N
Weather – Cloudy with some rain showers and sunny spells
North Coast – 2-3ft (Knee-Waisthigh) going 1-3ft (Knee-Waisthigh)
South Coast – 1ft (Flat)
Tides – 10:20 Low, 16:16 High

Weekend Summary:
Gold Coast OceanFest 2016 @ Croyde, North Devon
GC16-TwCover060516
Image
‘Not much about surf wise this weekend! Enough for beginners/learners/surf schools though.’

Saturday 18th:
‘Small onshore messy slop.’
Swell – (i) Weak WNW
Wind – Light-Medium N going NW
Weather – Cloudy but with plenty of sunny spells
North Coast – 1-2ft (Kneehigh)
South Coast – 0ft (Flat)
Tides – 04:34 High, 11:00 Low, 16:56 High

Sunday 19th (Fathers Day):
‘Small with cross-onshores.’
Swell – (i) Faint going OK W-WNW
Wind – Light-Medium going Medium SW
Weather – Overcast with a chance of light rain
North Coast – 1-2ft (Kneehigh) going 2-3ft (Knee-Waisthigh)
South Coast – 1ft (Flat)
Tides – 05:13 High, 11:37 Low, 17:33 High

Early Next Week:
‘More of he same as the last week, with a small swell most days (bigger swell on Tuesday), but it’s accompanies by predominantly SW veering W-NW winds.’

The scale for measuring conditions:

0-1ft – Unridable/Flat
1-2ft – Kneehigh
3ft – Waisthigh
4-5ft – Chest/Shoulderhigh
6ft – Headhigh
6-8ft = 1-1.5x Overhead
8-10ft = 1.5x Overhead
10-12ft = 2x Overhead
Please Note!

Wave height predictions are based on the larger breaks on both coasts such as Fistral and Croyde for the North, and Praa Sands and Bantham for the South.

Wave height is measured from the front of the wave, and 6ft would usually mean a ‘head-high’ wave.

Try and use some ‘local’ knowledge about what the wave sizes will be elsewhere. For example the Newquay Bay area is generally 1/3 to 3/4 the size of Fistral, increasing the further up the bay you go from Towan to Lusty Glaze, and that it will be clean on a W wind at ‘harbour left’ at Towan at mid-tide’ for example.

Tide times are based on Newquay.

Stay Stoked!
SJ
Never known to miss a marketing opportunity... After years in the wilderness, Sj, the harbinger of doom, Mr Entropy, the kiss of death, the swell killer, yes, the man formerly known as SJ, is back, cunningly disguised as Sj ! {Quote: Tony Plant - 2009}
User avatar
Shiraz Jiwa
 
Posts: 100
Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2016 11:54 am

Re: SJ's Surf Forecast for the SW - 13-19 June 2016

Postby Black » Wed Jun 15, 2016 2:50 pm

Hi SJ, why don't you give the period? Just as, if not more important than height to my way of thinking.
Never growing old together...
User avatar
Black
 
Posts: 5399
Joined: Sun Dec 16, 2007 4:33 pm
Location: Same place as God

Re: SJ's Surf Forecast for the SW - 13-19 June 2016

Postby Shiraz Jiwa » Wed Jun 15, 2016 4:12 pm

Black wrote:Hi SJ, why don't you give the period? Just as, if not more important than height to my way of thinking.


Hi Black,

Thanks for enquiring.

I don't give a 'detailed' period, but use 'strong/medium/weak/faint' etc. To the ordinary layperson, who doesn't know about how surf is created from swells etc, the general description works better. In a similar way, this is what I do with wind strength rather than listing knots etc.

The forecast was always designed for people who wanted a simple easy to read forecast without going into detail - ie they could easily see what would be happening each day.
Never known to miss a marketing opportunity... After years in the wilderness, Sj, the harbinger of doom, Mr Entropy, the kiss of death, the swell killer, yes, the man formerly known as SJ, is back, cunningly disguised as Sj ! {Quote: Tony Plant - 2009}
User avatar
Shiraz Jiwa
 
Posts: 100
Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2016 11:54 am

Re: SJ's Surf Forecast for the SW - 13-19 June 2016

Postby Black » Wed Jun 15, 2016 8:48 pm

Ah got you, thanks for the explanation.
Never growing old together...
User avatar
Black
 
Posts: 5399
Joined: Sun Dec 16, 2007 4:33 pm
Location: Same place as God

Re: SJ's Surf Forecast for the SW - 13-19 June 2016

Postby Shiraz Jiwa » Thu Jun 16, 2016 7:51 am

SJ’s Surf Forecast for the SW

Forecast last updated at 08:50 Thursday 16th June 2016
Hi everyone – these updates are currently made at any time of the day as and when I get the time/chance to update – however from September the intention would be for it to be updated every weekday morning by 10am.

[Don’t forget to look at this forecast the day before you go beach for the latest, as things can often change!]

The Rest Of The Week:
‘Meh! The sun and good surf has gone away, and it’s time now for a wet and windy day/week. Plenty of swell for most of the week, but with mostly onshore conditions for the North, and too small for the south to really work.’
Sunrise and sunset – 05:10 and 21:30
Twilight starts and ends – 04:25 and 22:15
Midday – 13:20
Length of day – 16:20
Offshore Sea Temp approx – 14.5C / 58F
outputmodelrun-160616-0840
Image

Monday 13th:
‘Could be OK if you get on it early! The winds will soon increase in strength and swing onshore though.’
Swell – (i) OK W-WSW going Weak W
Wind – Light-Medium SW going Medium W
Weather – Cloudy/overcast but mostly dry
North Coast – 4-5ft (Chest-Shoulderhigh) going 5-6ft (Shoulder-Headhigh)
South Coast – 1-2ft (Kneehigh)
Tides – 06:32 Low, 12:31 High, 18:57 Low (Neap tides)

Tuesday 14th:
‘Winds are too strong and onshore today – creating messy onshore lumpy surf with no underlying quality to the swell anyway.’
Swell – (i) Weak W
Wind – Medium W
Weather – Overcast with light rain showers
North Coast – 6ft (Headhigh) going 4-5ft (Chest-Shoulderhigh)
South Coast – 1-3ft (Knee-Waisthigh) going 1-2ft (Kneehigh)
Tides – 07:40 Low, 13:38 High, 20:04 Low

Wednesday 15th:
‘Onshore to the North, but a longer period swell will push through, making for an onshore for ‘chunky’ wave later on.’
Swell – (i) OK going Strong W
Wind – Light-Medium W going NW
Weather – Overcast with heavy rain showers
North Coast – 4-5ft (Chest-Shoulderhigh)
South Coast – 1-2ft (Kneehigh)
Tides – 08:42 Low, 14:40 High, 21:05 Low

Thursday 16th:
‘Onshore for the North, however the south may have a small but clean wave in the morning if you know where to look there!’
Swell – (i) OK W
Wind – Light-Medium going Medium N-NW
Weather – Mixture of cloud, sunshine,and rain
North Coast – 4-6ft (Chest-Headhigh) going 3-4ft (Waist-Chesthigh)
South Coast – 1-3ft (Knee-Waisthigh) going 1ft (Flat)
Tides – 09:35 Low, 15:31 High, 21:55 Low

Friday 17th:
‘A return to smallness – onshore slop on the North, and the south will be almost flat.’
Swell – (i) Weak W-WNW
Wind – Medium N-NW
Weather – Cloudy with some rain showers and sunny spells
North Coast – 2-3ft (Knee-Waisthigh) going 1-3ft (Knee-Waisthigh)
South Coast – 1ft (Flat)
Tides – 10:20 Low, 16:16 High

Weekend Summary:
Gold Coast OceanFest 2016 @ Croyde, North Devon
GC16-TwCover060516
Image
‘Not much about surf wise this weekend! Enough for beginners/learners/surf schools though.’

Saturday 18th:
‘Small onshore messy slop.’
Swell – (i) Weak W-WNW (ii) Faint going OK W
Wind – Light-Medium N going NW
Weather – Cloudy but with plenty of sunny spells
North Coast – 1-2ft (Kneehigh)
South Coast – 0ft (Flat)
Tides – 04:34 High, 11:00 Low, 16:56 High

Sunday 19th (Fathers Day):
‘Small with cross-onshores.’
Swell – (i) OK W (ii) Faint going Weak W-WSW
Wind – Light-Medium W-SW going Medium SW
Weather – Overcast with a chance of light rain by evening
North Coast – 1-2ft (Kneehigh) going 2-3ft (Knee-Waisthigh)
South Coast – 1ft (Flat)
Tides – 05:13 High, 11:37 Low, 17:33 High

Early Next Week:
‘More of he same as the last week, with a small swell most days (bigger swell on Tuesday), but it’s accompanies by predominantly SW veering W-NW winds.’

The scale for measuring conditions:

0-1ft – Unridable/Flat
1-2ft – Kneehigh
3ft – Waisthigh
4-5ft – Chest/Shoulderhigh
6ft – Headhigh
6-8ft = 1-1.5x Overhead
8-10ft = 1.5x Overhead
10-12ft = 2x Overhead
Please Note!

Wave height predictions are based on the larger breaks on both coasts such as Fistral and Croyde for the North, and Praa Sands and Bantham for the South.

Wave height is measured from the front of the wave, and 6ft would usually mean a ‘head-high’ wave.

Try and use some ‘local’ knowledge about what the wave sizes will be elsewhere. For example the Newquay Bay area is generally 1/3 to 3/4 the size of Fistral, increasing the further up the bay you go from Towan to Lusty Glaze, and that it will be clean on a W wind at ‘harbour left’ at Towan at mid-tide’ for example.

Tide times are based on Newquay.

Stay Stoked!
SJ
Never known to miss a marketing opportunity... After years in the wilderness, Sj, the harbinger of doom, Mr Entropy, the kiss of death, the swell killer, yes, the man formerly known as SJ, is back, cunningly disguised as Sj ! {Quote: Tony Plant - 2009}
User avatar
Shiraz Jiwa
 
Posts: 100
Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2016 11:54 am

Re: SJ's Surf Forecast for the SW - 13-19 June 2016

Postby Chris F » Thu Jun 16, 2016 10:23 am

Hi SJ. Your forecasts are of little use to me now, but thanks for putting them out in pre MSW days. I lived in Bristol from 2000-2 and they were invaluable for some great days out.
Chris F
 
Posts: 7631
Joined: Thu Jan 26, 2006 2:13 pm
Location: Yabberdabberdeen

Re: SJ's Surf Forecast for the SW - 13-19 June 2016

Postby Shiraz Jiwa » Thu Jun 16, 2016 10:49 am

Chris F wrote:Hi SJ. Your forecasts are of little use to me now, but thanks for putting them out in pre MSW days. I lived in Bristol from 2000-2 and they were invaluable for some great days out.


You're most welcome Chris. Glad you scored from waves from it back then :)

Been doing it since 1998, but have recently had a break of almost 8-9 years from the forecast!
Never known to miss a marketing opportunity... After years in the wilderness, Sj, the harbinger of doom, Mr Entropy, the kiss of death, the swell killer, yes, the man formerly known as SJ, is back, cunningly disguised as Sj ! {Quote: Tony Plant - 2009}
User avatar
Shiraz Jiwa
 
Posts: 100
Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2016 11:54 am

Re: SJ's Surf Forecast for the SW - 13-19 June 2016

Postby Shiraz Jiwa » Fri Jun 17, 2016 6:48 am

SJ’s Surf Forecast for the SW

Forecast last updated at 07:45 Friday 17th June 2016
Hi everyone – these updates are currently made at any time of the day as and when I get the time/chance to update – however from September the intention would be for it to be updated every weekday morning by 10am.

[Don’t forget to look at this forecast the day before you go beach for the latest, as things can often change!]

The Rest Of The Week:
‘Meh! The sun and good surf has gone away, and it’s time now for a wet and windy day/week. Plenty of swell for most of the week, but with mostly onshore conditions for the North, and too small for the south to really work.’
Sunrise and sunset – 05:10 and 21:30
Twilight starts and ends – 04:25 and 22:15
Midday – 13:20
Length of day – 16:20
Offshore Sea Temp approx – 14.5C / 58F
outputmodelrun-170616-0745
Image

Monday 13th:
‘Could be OK if you get on it early! The winds will soon increase in strength and swing onshore though.’
Swell – (i) OK W-WSW going Weak W
Wind – Light-Medium SW going Medium W
Weather – Cloudy/overcast but mostly dry
North Coast – 4-5ft (Chest-Shoulderhigh) going 5-6ft (Shoulder-Headhigh)
South Coast – 1-2ft (Kneehigh)
Tides – 06:32 Low, 12:31 High, 18:57 Low (Neap tides)

Tuesday 14th:
‘Winds are too strong and onshore today – creating messy onshore lumpy surf with no underlying quality to the swell anyway.’
Swell – (i) Weak W
Wind – Medium W
Weather – Overcast with light rain showers
North Coast – 6ft (Headhigh) going 4-5ft (Chest-Shoulderhigh)
South Coast – 1-3ft (Knee-Waisthigh) going 1-2ft (Kneehigh)
Tides – 07:40 Low, 13:38 High, 20:04 Low

Wednesday 15th:
‘Onshore to the North, but a longer period swell will push through, making for an onshore for ‘chunky’ wave later on.’
Swell – (i) OK going Strong W
Wind – Light-Medium W going NW
Weather – Overcast with heavy rain showers
North Coast – 4-5ft (Chest-Shoulderhigh)
South Coast – 1-2ft (Kneehigh)
Tides – 08:42 Low, 14:40 High, 21:05 Low

Thursday 16th:
‘Onshore for the North, however the south may have a small but clean wave in the morning if you know where to look there!’
Swell – (i) OK W
Wind – Light-Medium going Medium N-NW
Weather – Mixture of cloud, sunshine,and rain
North Coast – 4-6ft (Chest-Headhigh) going 3-4ft (Waist-Chesthigh)
South Coast – 1-3ft (Knee-Waisthigh) going 1ft (Flat)
Tides – 09:35 Low, 15:31 High, 21:55 Low

Friday 17th:
‘A return to smallness – onshore slop on the North, and the south will be almost flat.’
Swell – (i) Weak W-WNW
Wind – Medium N-NW
Weather – Cloudy with some rain showers and sunny spells
North Coast – 2-3ft (Knee-Waisthigh) going 1-3ft (Knee-Waisthigh)
South Coast – 1ft (Flat)
Tides – 10:20 Low, 16:16 High

Weekend Summary:
Gold Coast OceanFest 2016 @ Croyde, North Devon
GC16-TwCover060516
Image
‘Not much about surf wise this weekend! Enough for beginners/learners/surf schools though.’

Saturday 18th:
‘Small onshore messy slop.’
Swell – (i) Weak W-WNW (ii) Faint going OK W
Wind – Light-Medium N-NW going NW
Weather – Cloudy but with plenty of sunny spells
North Coast – 1-2ft (Kneehigh)
South Coast – 0ft (Flat)
Tides – 04:34 High, 11:00 Low, 16:56 High

Sunday 19th (Fathers Day):
‘Small with cross-onshores.’
Swell – (i) OK W (ii) Faint going Weak W-WSW
Wind – Light-Medium going Medium SW
Weather – Overcast with a light rain by evening
North Coast – 1-3ft (Knee-Waisthigh) going 3ft (Waisthigh)
South Coast – 1ft (Flat)
Tides – 05:13 High, 11:37 Low, 17:33 High

Early Next Week:
‘There’ll be swell all week, so with weather systems set to change midweek with a weak high pressure trying to push in, we could see the winds go light and maybe even offshore for Wednesday onwards. Further on towards next weekend the USA and European forecasts differ considerably so this usually means the forecast is ‘changeable’ rather than believing in one or the other.’

The scale for measuring conditions:

0-1ft – Unridable/Flat
1-2ft – Kneehigh
3ft – Waisthigh
4-5ft – Chest/Shoulderhigh
6ft – Headhigh
6-8ft = 1-1.5x Overhead
8-10ft = 1.5x Overhead
10-12ft = 2x Overhead
Please Note!

Wave height predictions are based on the larger breaks on both coasts such as Fistral and Croyde for the North, and Praa Sands and Bantham for the South.

Wave height is measured from the front of the wave, and 6ft would usually mean a ‘head-high’ wave.

Try and use some ‘local’ knowledge about what the wave sizes will be elsewhere. For example the Newquay Bay area is generally 1/3 to 3/4 the size of Fistral, increasing the further up the bay you go from Towan to Lusty Glaze, and that it will be clean on a W wind at ‘harbour left’ at Towan at mid-tide’ for example.

Tide times are based on Newquay.

Stay Stoked!
SJ
Never known to miss a marketing opportunity... After years in the wilderness, Sj, the harbinger of doom, Mr Entropy, the kiss of death, the swell killer, yes, the man formerly known as SJ, is back, cunningly disguised as Sj ! {Quote: Tony Plant - 2009}
User avatar
Shiraz Jiwa
 
Posts: 100
Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2016 11:54 am


Return to Surf Science

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests